Encuestas en los estados clave

Actualización: Interesante artículo de Mark Penn
en Político sobre el mapa electoral y los distintos caminos hacia la victoria.

Hoy Rassmusen, que otorga un punto de ventaja a Mccain en su tracking diario, publica los resultados de sus encuestas en algunos de los estados clave: Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, Florida y Pennsylvania. En todos ellos los resultados están muy ajustados, sólo en Florida la diferencia es superior al margen de error.

McCain lidera en 3 estados (Colorado, Florida y Ohio) y Obama en Virginia y Pennsylvania.

En Colorado McCain obtiene un 48% de la intención de voto, por un 46% de Obama.
En Florida la diferencia es de cinco punto 49% a 44%.

En Ohio, McCain continua con ventaja, 3 puntos frente a los 7 de los que gozaba la semana pasada.

Virginia y Pennsylvania están tecnicamente empatados. are both tied, con una ligera ventaja, dos puntos, de Barack Obama.

Otros asuntos interesantes que se plantean en los resultados son:

· Roughly one-in-five voters say they could still change their mind before voting. This large number of potentially persuadable voters places enormous importance on the debates which begin a week from Friday.

· Ohio voters are less certain of their vote than those in other states. Thirty percent (30%) in the Buckeye State say they could change their mind.

· In all five states, McCain continues to be viewed more favorably—and trusted more– than Obama.

· The number who would not be comfortable with Obama as President is at 40% or 41% in every state.

· The number not comfortable with a President McCain ranges from 33% to 36%. This is consistent with national polling data released today showing that more voters believe McCain is prepared to be President.

· Voters are generally more comfortable with the idea of a President Biden than a President Obama. The number uncomfortable with the idea of Biden in the Oval Office ranges from 26% to 33%.

· Voters are less comfortable with idea of a President Palin than a President Biden.

· In fact, Palin’s numbers are closer to Obama’s than Biden’s. The number uncomfortable with a President Palin ranges from 38% to 45% in the five states polled this week.

· The Republican support for McCain is quite stable. The modest changes from week-to-week can generally be found in changes among Democrats and unaffiliated voters.

· Obama has the edge among unaffiliated voters in two states, McCain in two, and they are even in one. Nationally, McCain has a slight advantage among unaffiliated voters.

· In Pennsylvania, there was a three point decline in the number of undecideds along with a two point increase in support for McCain.

· In Ohio, there was a three point increase in the number of undecideds along with a three point decline in support for McCain.

· In Colorado, Nader’s support when up three percentage points while Obama’s went down three.

· Economic issues are the top issue in all five states with national security matters a distant second.