Al menos eso dice el tracking de Gallup realizado ayer que repite el resultado de hace dos días: 8 puntos para Obama, veremos si hacía falta para digerirlo y hoy las cosas cambian aunque quizás parece que el ciclo informativo ya ha cambiado de bando, y durará al menos una semana.
Rasmunsen le da a Obama 4 puntos y Zogby, en una encuesta realizada tras la elección de Palin, 1 a Mccain.
Algo pasa con Sarah, cuando incluso los demócratas que tanto interés tenían en sacar partido al histórico discurso de Obama se han unido en la lucha. Creo que esta vez por sus enemigos la conoceremos y haciendo un repaso de algunos de ellos, podemos hacernos una día de lo que Palin aporta al ticket.
Los ataques son continuos y diversos en su consistencia y peregrinidad (si eso se puede predicar de los ataques peregrinos), la han llegado a acusar de mala madre:
Mccain no la conoce suficiente, sólo se reunió con ella una vez. Algo que no dice nada de ella, pero va directamente contra Mccain, al que últimamente algunos se empeñan en presentar como un neuras con el gatillo fácil para ir a la guerra.
Es creacionista, apoyó a Pat Buchanan, tremendamente conservadora. Acusaciones que no pueden ocultar que es la gobernadora con más apoyo de la Unión en su Estado, que ha gobernado con demócratas y republicanos, que se enfrentó a un miembro de su propio partido, el Gobernador, por corrupto, y, que los que la conocen, sus conciudadanos no tienen ninguna queja al respecto. Una vez más aquí está su fortaleza, y contra ella van a luchar, la historia de Palin apela a votantes de cualquier signo, a esos «democratas de Reagan» o «mamas del fútbol (ahora son del hockey) de Clinton». Pero a la vez excita a las bases republicanas que dieron el triunfo a Bush dos veces y ahora amenazaban con quedarse en casa: el movimiento provida (y todo lo relacionado con la iglesia evangélica), el NRA… si logra recuperar esa máquina electoral en estos dos meses la campaña de Mccain va a cambiar mucho.
No es Hillary Clinton. En la misma línea contrastan la experiencia y las ideas de la Senadora Clinton con esta «desconocida», pero no pueden ocultar que su elección sería histórica, la primera mujer vicepresidente, tan histórica como la de Obama, y quizás más necesaria socialmente. No voy a entrar a valorar qué desigualdad es más grande, o cual hay que superar primero pero en el fondo las mujeres, que son más, empezaron a votar primero.
Su falta de experiencia. Este es el ataque más definitivo. Qué papel haría «la Palin» como Comandante en Jefe en caso, probable según los comentaristas, que Mccain abandonara el cargo antes de tiempo (no han querido matarle pero 72 años, cancer, torturas, ataques… aparecen constantemente en la argumentación). Es un arma de doble filo, y quizás el mayor acierto de la elección de la Gobernadora de Alaska. Parece que no han leído a Lakoff, o que yo lo entendí mal, pero cada vez que los demócratas hablan de la inexperiencia de Palin, Obama pierde un votante, no se puede desligar la imagen de la gobernadora del Estado más grande de la Unión, con 7000 millones de dolares de presupuesto, del Senador estatal recien llegado a Washington. Las respuestas que he escuchado hasta el momento son claras: «Palin tiene más experiencia para ser vp que Obama para ser Presidente», «»Palin ha gobernado un Estado Obama sólo ha gobernado su boca», a mi se me ha ocurrido una (sin que sirva de precedente), «Si Palin llega a ser Presidente tiene muy facil alcanzar la experiencia de Obama, basta con escoger a Biden».
Este es el número de personas que vieron a Obama ayer en televisión. Un nivel de audiencia propio de los grandes eventos deportivos como la Superbowl o las Series Mundiales de beisbol y baloncesto….
Un límite difícil de superar por la Convención Republicana, ni siquiera con su nueva estrella mediática Sarah Palin.
En Fox entrevistaban a una portavoz de Barack Obama, Anita Dunn, parece que la elección les tiene un poco desconcertados, nada que ver con el video de Biden con el que Mccain recibió su elección:
MARTHA MACCALLUM: we’ll bring in anita dunn. she is a senior advisor to the obama campaign. good afternoon. your campaign’s reaction to john mccain’s voice for his v.p.
ANITA DUNN: good afternoon, martha. obviously, it’s a big surprise for many people. certainly senator obama and senator biden have extended their congratulations to governor palin and welcome her voice and see her as yet another example of how the faces and the barriers in politics are changing. i think that’s a good thing. sarah palin doesn’t represent a lot of change from our perspective. she has been a huge supporter of the bush-cheney-mccain economic policies. she has been very much in line with the policies of the last eight years that have brought us to where we are today. from our perspective, we welcome her and obviously it’s exciting for her. she is not exactly a household name, as you pointed out. a big surprise. i think there are a lot of questions people across the country have about her in her record. those will be answered in the coming days.
MARTHA MACCALLUM: anita, i bet some folks would say it wasn’t until recently that barack obama wasn’t exactly a household name. he is much more than that now, looking at the huge response he got in denver last night. when you look at sarah palin, just taking it from what the other side of this coin would say, she shores up the base to a certain extent, you must admit, because she brings in conservative voters, the base with which john mccain has had some problems at this point. there are a lot of conservative folks who feel very good about this choice. she also some would hope from a mccain campaign perspective, that she will reach out to some of those woman who are not totally sold on barack obama because she has the historic stature of being the first republican woman vice-presidential nominee.
DUNN: she does shore up john mccain’s very, very conservative based problems. because as she would be the first to say, she is a very, very conservative person in terms of social views. to that extent, i think going to the hillary clinton voters of women. as debbie schulze said she is no hillary clinton. hillary clinton is someone who everyone knew was ready from day one. she had the experience. she had a record of working for equal pay, of working for women and children. she has a terrific public service record over a very long time. you know, i think sarah palin is — she is obviously a relatively young, accomplished woman. i think all of us look at that wonderful family and say you go, girl. but at the end of the day, the fact of the matter is i don’t think anybody is arguing that she is actually ready from day one and given that john mccain himself has tried to make experience such an initial this campaign, you have got to say to yourself are they kind of conceding that they have lost that argument, because at the end of the day, the choice here is between whether you’re going to have more of the same which is what john mccain is promising or whether you are going to have the change we need to make this one work for the middle class.
MACCALLUM: what they are going to say is she has more experience than barack obama who is running at the top of your ticket because she has been a governor since 2006. she has a lot of small business experience as well. she was a mayor. she has a lot more sort of managerial. she has run things. she is a governor. she is the only governor out of the four people who make up the two sides of these tickets.
DUNN: well, martha, we certainly respect her experience, but let’s be real here. barack obama has been in public service now for over a decade. the fact of the matter is that sarah palin was the part-time mayor of a town in alaska that is fewer than 10,000 people and has been governor for fewer than two years.
MACCALLUM: but when she was doing that —
DUNN: let me finish, please.
MACCALLUM: i’m playing devil’s advocate, because when she was doing that, he was a community service worker in chicago. it may not be one that is easy to argue, barack obama versus sarah palin when you’re looking at experience.
DUNN: the fact of the matter is let’s be real here, that sarah palin is a refreshing and new voice for the republican party but she espouses the same old policies. barack obama who has been in public service, who has actually done things in public service, who has expanded health care to children, who with senator dick lugar, a republican, wrote the law on nuclear nonproliferation, who has actual substantive achievements in public office, i think people are going to look at that. but they are going to look more at what kind of change do we need in this country? john stain is not going to bring the change we need because he is for just more of the same policies. for eight years, john mccain has espoused the bush economic policies.
MACCALLUM: i think you’re right to point out, in the end i do think that people will vote for the top of this ticket, whether it’s john mccain or barack obama.
DUNN: absolutely.
MACCALLUM: and what kind of sort of rounding that out each of these v.p. candidates bring to the floor. i think it will be very interesting to see sarah palin and joe biden debate. it will be an interesting exchange. anita dunn, thanks very much for talking with me today. good to speak with you.
Gallup ha publicado su tracking diario, realizado durante la Convención, desde el martes hasta el jueves. Si ayer la ventaja era de 6 puntos hoy sube a 8 (49-41), habrá que esperar a mañana para ver si el discurso de Obama ha convencido a algunos indecisos.